Carl E. Duckett was an American intelligence official who headed the [[Central Intelligence Agency|CIA]]'s Office of Science and Technology and later served as Deputy Director for Science and Technology. He was recruited to the Agency in 1963 from the Army's Missile Command headquarters and became a key figure in both nuclear intelligence and unconventional research programs.[^1][^2] ### Nuclear Intelligence Operations Duckett became the recipient of intelligence on [[Israel]]'s nuclear program, which was routed to his office from sources like [[Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory]] and [[Los Alamos]] through the [[Central Intelligence Agency|CIA]]'s Office of Science and Technology. His work centered on assessing [[Israel]]'s nuclear capabilities and the potential for nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.[^1] ### Israeli Nuclear Estimates Duckett's top-secret [[Central Intelligence Agency|CIA]] estimate in 1968, which concluded that [[Israel]] had three or four nuclear bombs, was primarily based on his conviction that [[Zalman Mordecai Shapiro]] had smuggled over two hundred pounds of enriched uranium into [[Israel]]. This alleged smuggling was also a major factor in Duckett's 1974 estimate, which credited [[Israel]] with at least ten bombs. To Duckett and his colleagues, the case against Shapiro was unassailable, despite the lack of concrete proof of a chemical reprocessing plant in [[Israel]].[^2] ### Public Disclosure and Media Impact Duckett's intelligence report on [[Israel]]'s nuclear arsenal, initially suppressed in 1968 by [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] and later by [[Richard Helms]], finally made its way onto the front page of the _New York Times_ in July 1970. This report provided the American public with its first account of the [[Central Intelligence Agency|CIA]]'s assessment of the Israeli nuclear arsenal, stating that the U.S. government had been operating on the assumption that [[Israel]] either possessed an atomic bomb or had component parts available for quick assembly.[^1] ### Career-Ending Mistake In March 1976, Duckett made a career-ending mistake by openly discussing [[Israel]]'s nuclear weapons at an informal seminar, stating that [[Israel]] was estimated to have ten to twenty nuclear weapons "available for use." This disclosure forced [[George H.W. Bush]], the newly installed [[Central Intelligence Agency|CIA]] director, to issue a public statement assuming "full responsibility" and led to Duckett's retirement. Duckett later acknowledged that the rumors of his heavy drinking led to his departure, but insisted the real issue was Bush's unwillingness to promote him. His 1974 estimate remained the official American intelligence estimate until the early 1980s, despite being based on speculation and lacking specific intelligence.[^2] ### Psychic Research Programs Beyond nuclear intelligence, Duckett was a key figure in the agency's involvement with psychic research, including the [[STARGATE PROJECT|Grill Flame]] program. Duckett, along with [[John McMahon]], was briefed on the remote viewing research at [[Stanford Research Institute]] (SRI) and suggested that the time was ripe for psychic spying on more sensitive targets overseas.[^3] ### Footnotes [^1]: Hersh, Seymour M. _The Samson Option: Israel's Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy_. Random House, 1991. Chapter 11, 16. [^2]: Hersh, Seymour M. _The Samson Option: Israel's Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy_. Random House, 1991. Chapter 18. [^3]: Schnabel, Jim. _Remote Viewers_. Dell, 1997.